Emerging Risk Identification and Assessment
Framework for identifying, assessing, and monitoring emerging risks that could impact the organization over a longer time horizon.
Emerging Risk Management
What are Emerging Risks?
Emerging risks are new or evolving risks that are difficult to quantify but may have significant future impact on the organization.
Characteristics of Emerging Risks
- High uncertainty about likelihood and impact
- Limited historical data
- Long-term time horizon (3-10+ years)
- Potential for significant disruption
- Often interconnected with other risks
- Rapidly evolving nature
Categories of Emerging Risks
Technology Risks
- Artificial Intelligence disruption
- Quantum computing threats
- Autonomous systems
- Deepfakes and misinformation
- New cyber attack vectors
Environmental Risks
- Climate change (physical and transition)
- Biodiversity loss
- Resource scarcity
- Pollution and contamination
- Extreme weather events
Social Risks
- Demographic shifts
- Workforce evolution
- Social inequality
- Mental health trends
- Changing consumer behavior
Economic Risks
- De-globalization
- Currency instability
- Asset bubbles
- Inflation/deflation
- Trade disruptions
Geopolitical Risks
- Regulatory fragmentation
- Nationalism and populism
- Cyber warfare
- Supply chain realignment
- Sanctions and trade wars
Identification Process
Horizon Scanning
- Monitor global trends
- Track regulatory developments
- Follow industry publications
- Engage external experts
- Analyze weak signals
Sources
- World Economic Forum Global Risks Report
- Industry associations
- Academic research
- Consulting firm publications
- Government and NGO reports
Assessment Approach
Since quantitative data is limited:
-
Expert Panel Assessment
- Diverse perspectives
- Structured discussion
- Delphi method
-
Scenario Development
- Multiple plausible futures
- Narrative descriptions
- Impact pathways
-
Impact Mapping
- Business model implications
- Strategic objective impacts
- Interconnection analysis
Monitoring and Response
- Dedicated emerging risk register
- Regular review (quarterly)
- Trigger indicators
- Contingency planning
- Strategic flexibility